Small states and the dilemma of geopolitics: role change in Finland and Sweden

Abstract

This article focuses on foreign policy role change in small liberal states caused by a weakening rules-based order illustrated by the decisions of Finland and Sweden to apply for membership of NATO, thereby abandoning longstanding policies of military non-alignment. Although both countries sought alignment with NATO in the context of intense security threats in northern Europe, the domestic processes of foreign policy role change proceeded along different trajectories. In Finland, the domestic process of role change was characterized by strong elite and public consensus on membership of NATO, whereas in Sweden there was more hesitation regarding giving up military non-alignment and losing freedom of action. In this article, we address a gap in the literature on role theory and domestic role change by conceptualizing the dilemma of small liberal states being compelled to reassess national role conceptions in their domestic settings in the face of external challenges outside their control, without jeopardizing national autonomy and deep-seated social identities. To this end, we construct a model for national action strategies based on scope conditions of domestic role change, varying according to the level of congruence in national identity and the degree of domestic elite consensus concerning national foreign policy.