Collateral Damage The Legacy of the Secret War in Laos

Juan Felipe Riaño, F. Caicedo
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Abstract

We investigate the long-term impact of conflict on economic development, focusing on the US ‘Secret War’ in Laos (1964-1973). We show that regions heavily bombed during the conflict experienced lower economic development, even 50 years after it officially ended. Our research employs multiple empirical strategies and data on bombing campaigns, satellite imagery, and development indicators. A one standard deviation increase in bombing intensity decreases GPD per capita by 7.1%. We demonstrate the persistent effects of bombing campaigns on human capital accumulation, structural transformation, and migration patterns, stressing the role of Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) contamination as the primary mechanism of transmission.
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附带损害 老挝秘密战争的遗产
我们以美国在老挝的 "秘密战争"(1964-1973 年)为重点,研究了冲突对经济发展的长期影响。我们的研究表明,在冲突期间遭受严重轰炸的地区经济发展水平较低,甚至在冲突正式结束 50 年后仍是如此。我们的研究采用了多种实证策略,并使用了有关轰炸战役、卫星图像和发展指标的数据。轰炸强度每增加一个标准差,人均 GPD 就会减少 7.1%。我们证明了轰炸运动对人力资本积累、结构转型和移民模式的持续影响,强调了未爆弹药(UXO)污染作为主要传播机制的作用。
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