Data assimilation for online model calibration in discrete event simulation

Abstract

The increasing availability of real-time data collected from dynamic systems brings opportunities for simulation models to be calibrated online for improving the accuracy of simulation-based studies. Systematical methods are needed for assimilating real-time measurement data into simulation models. This paper presents a particle filter-based data assimilation method to support online model calibration in discrete event simulation. A joint state-parameter estimation problem is defined, and a particle filter-based data assimilation algorithm is presented. The developed method is applied to a discrete event simulation of a one-way traffic control system. Experiments results demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed method for calibrating simulation models’ parameters in real time and for improving data assimilation results.