Mining green minerals with the Taliban: Addressing new sourcing risks from Afghanistan in the age of the green transition

Abstract

For decades, Afghanistan's mineral fortune has fueled imaginaries. Described as holding trillions of dollars in rare earths, copper, lithium, gold, as well as rare gemstones, the country has attracted the attention of mineral dependent industries and jurisdictions. As the green transition away from fossil fuels is under way, ‘green minerals’ deposits hold the potential to recenter Kabul on global supply maps. While lithium and rare earths appear particularly attractive, the Mes Aynak copper deposit is now at the core of China's involvement in Afghanistan to transform the country as a major supplier. In parallel, security issues remain, with significant waves of violence aimed in particular to foreign investors. In this article we argue that the opening of the Afghan's mineral sector will spur new critical supply and reputational risks for corporate actors and is unlikely to significantly benefit a pauperized population. We identify three overarching risks that should be proactively tackled in international corporate risk management, to limit both reputational risks for these companies and favor a trickle down of at least some of the proceeds to the almost 40 million people under the Islamic Emirate's rule.