Missing Linkages and Jobless Growth in India: An Econometric Analysis

IF 0.9 Q3 ECONOMICS Economic Papers Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI:10.1111/1759-3441.12410
Hariom Arora, Kalandi Charan Pradhan, Ruchi Sharma
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Abstract

This study aims to empirically validate the theories of missing linkages among major economic sectors (agriculture, industry and service) and jobless growth in the context of Indian economy using the RBI-KLEMS database for the period 1980–2018. The study employs the ARDL framework to identify both short-run and long-run relationships between sectoral employment elasticity and sectoral share of value-added with other covariates (specifically macroeconomic factors). Our empirical findings validate the prevalence of theory of missing linkages and jobless growth. Further, we found that weak linkages exist between agriculture, industry and service sectors. However, industry and services have strong interlinkages, whereas industry and agriculture have weak linkages, which leads to weak linkages between services and agriculture. Additionally, it was observed that macroeconomic factors do not exhibit a short-term relationship with employment elasticities in explaining missing linkages. In fact, macroeconomic factors demonstrate a substantial long-term association. Based on these interlinkages, the study proposes the potential for policies to stimulate growth across sectors. Nonetheless, policies aimed at improving the productivity of the primary sector remain a prominent solution.

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印度的缺失联系与失业增长:计量经济学分析
本研究旨在利用 1980-2018 年期间的 RBI-KLEMS 数据库,以印度经济为背景,实证验证主要经济部门(农业、工业和服务业)与失业增长之间的缺失联系理论。研究采用 ARDL 框架来确定部门就业弹性和部门附加值份额与其他协变量(特别是宏观经济因素)之间的短期和长期关系。我们的实证研究结果验证了普遍存在的联系缺失和无就业增长理论。此外,我们发现农业、工业和服务业之间的联系较弱。然而,工业和服务业之间的相互联系较强,而工业和农业之间的联系较弱,这导致服务业和农业之间的联系较弱。此外,研究还发现,在解释缺失联系时,宏观经济因素与就业弹性并不表现出短期关系。事实上,宏观经济因素表现出实质性的长期关联。基于这些相互联系,研究提出了刺激各部门增长的政策潜力。不过,旨在提高第一产业生产率的政策仍然是一个突出的解决方案。
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来源期刊
Economic Papers
Economic Papers ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
23
期刊介绍: Economic Papers is one of two journals published by the Economics Society of Australia. The journal features a balance of high quality research in applied economics and economic policy analysis which distinguishes it from other Australian journals. The intended audience is the broad range of economists working in business, government and academic communities within Australia and internationally who are interested in economic issues related to Australia and the Asia-Pacific region. Contributions are sought from economists working in these areas and should be written to be accessible to a wide section of our readership. All contributions are refereed.
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