Who does new trips and why?: An analysis toward the modeling of induced demand

Abstract

Improvements in infrastructure capacity and travel conditions including the introduction of a new transport mode can induce changes in traffic. Although this can occur through a variety of behavioral mechanisms, in this study, the main focus is on the increase of individual mobility rates – namely induced trips. A three-step methodological framework is proposed to identify and model-induced trips, along with the development of discrete choice models, which is the first step of the framework and acts as its foundation. Multinomial logit (MNL) and nested logit (NL) models are estimated, with trip frequencies as the dependent variable. Factors such as age, household type, household car ownership, the number of children and trip reason are found to be influential on the decision of making new trips. Results also suggest that shared mobility significantly paves way to new trips. The contributions from this study can support in understanding the reasons behind the generation of new trips and devise pertinent policies.