Gross regional product in Ukraine: two-dimensional analysis of regularities and territorial features

Abstract

Purpose. Carrying out an analysis of panel data on individual indicators of the development of the regions of Ukraine in general and their aggregates, distinguished by territorial location and profitability in order to establish the main regularities and specific features of changes in their gross regional product. Methodology. On the basis of a sample of statistical indicators of the socio-economic development of the regions of Ukraine for the period from the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war (2014) to the full-scale invasion, the authors created panel series of data with the separation of regional groups according to territorial and income criteria. For each group panel series of data, random effects regression models were built in order to determine the presence of regularities and specific features of regional development in different groups. Findings. An analysis of scientific developments and practical results in the issue of determining the key factors of the formation of the gross regional product was carried out. Given the uncertainty in views on the key factors of regional development, an attempt was made to determine them using a two-dimensional analysis of panel data. For this purpose, a sample of statistical information on the main indicators of socio-economic development of each of the regions of Ukraine was formed and their grouping was carried out according to two criteria: territorial location and profitability according to the indicator of the gross regional product per capita. In general, five groups of oblasts were formed based on territorial characteristics and four groups of oblasts based on income characteristics, and a panel regression model was constructed for each of these groups, including the total set of regional panel data. The received specifications of the models made it possible to form a list of key regularities in the formation of the gross regional product in Ukraine, as well as to determine specific factors of influence on the resulting indicator for each of the groups of oblasts. Originality. On the basis of the given approach to the panel analysis of factors of regional development and, in particular, the formation of the gross regional product, based on a combination of statistical methods for grouping (clustering) regions according to various criteria and panel regression models, the hypothesis regarding the presence of common regularities of regional development in certain groups of oblasts of Ukraine was confirmed. The key factors and specific features of changes in the indicator of the gross regional product in Ukraine in general and in individual regional clusters are determined. Practical value. The possibility of practical use of the obtained results as key risk factors in the process of forming plans for the economic development of individual oblasts in the long term, as well as the application of the proposed approach to the study on key factors of the formation of other indicators of regional development.