ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR ILLICIT CROPS HAS NOT SUCCEEDED AND CAN NEVER SUCCEED

Romesh Bhattacharji
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Abstract

Thirty years ago an illicit crop containment policy called Alternative Development (AD), supported by UNODC and some developed countries commenced with fanfare, funds and optimism. It claimed to be a humane way of weaning illicit crop cultivators, but followed in the wake of eradication. It is a policy of selective economic development of illicit crop growing areas, excluding contiguous poor areas. Despite the prominence given to AD and the years spent in nurturing it there is no success at all. No statistical data is available of how many hectares of illicit crop have been permanently removed. On the other hand illicit cultivation of all drug crops keeps increasing. Most and of immediate concern is that, despite optimism of UNGASS 2017 and other NGOs, opium production in Afghanistan rose by 43 per cent to 4,800 metric tons in 2016 compared with 2015 levels. The area under opium poppy cultivation also increased to 201,000 hectares (ha) in 2016, a rise of 10 per cent compared with 183,000 ha in 2015. The higher production can be explained by the larger area under opium poppy cultivation, but the most important driver is the higher opium yield per hectare.
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非法作物替代发展没有成功,也不可能成功
三十年前,在联合国毒品和犯罪问题办公室和一些发达国家的支持下,一项名为 "替代发展"(AD)的遏制非法作物政策大张旗鼓地开始实施,并带来了资金和乐观情绪。该政策声称是让非法作物种植者断奶的一种人道方式,但在根除非法作物之后,该政策随之而来。这是一项有选择地发展非法作物种植区经济的政策,将毗邻的贫困地区排除在外。尽管对反倾销措施给予了高度重视,并花费了多年时间进行培育,但根本没有取得成功。没有统计数据表明有多少公顷的非法作物被永久清除。另一方面,所有毒品作物的非法种植都在不断增加。最直接令人担忧的是,尽管 2017 年联大特别会议和其他非政府组织持乐观态度,但 2016 年阿富汗的鸦片产量比 2015 年增加了 43%,达到 4800 公吨。2016 年罂粟种植面积也增至 201 000 公顷,与 2015 年的 183 000 公顷相比增加了 10%。产量增加的原因是罂粟种植面积扩大,但最重要的驱动因素是每公顷鸦片产量提高。
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