{"title":"Supply chain risk in grain trading: Inventories as real options for shipping grain","authors":"William W. Wilson, Jesse Klebe","doi":"10.1002/agr.21938","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Integrating trading and logistics is an important challenge in commodity trading. Trading and logistics are strategic decisions and are integral to most commodities including grain shipping by rail, in addition to other modes (barges, ocean shipping). There are substantial risks, such as the ordering and placement of rail cars. The other risk is having sufficient grain stocks to load rail cars. Alternatives for managing these risks include holding grain inventories and the strategic use of shipping options. The purpose of this study is to develop a model for determining an optimal grain inventory strategy for shippers. The real option methodology is used to value uncertainty in rail car velocity and determine optimal purchases and inventories. The results show the importance of integrating trading and logistics decisions and illustrate that inventories can be interpreted and valued as real options that are affected by uncertainties. Taken together, the real options indicate how much extra inventory shippers should maintain to mitigate risks and maximize profits.","PeriodicalId":55544,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness","volume":"540 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Agribusiness","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21938","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Integrating trading and logistics is an important challenge in commodity trading. Trading and logistics are strategic decisions and are integral to most commodities including grain shipping by rail, in addition to other modes (barges, ocean shipping). There are substantial risks, such as the ordering and placement of rail cars. The other risk is having sufficient grain stocks to load rail cars. Alternatives for managing these risks include holding grain inventories and the strategic use of shipping options. The purpose of this study is to develop a model for determining an optimal grain inventory strategy for shippers. The real option methodology is used to value uncertainty in rail car velocity and determine optimal purchases and inventories. The results show the importance of integrating trading and logistics decisions and illustrate that inventories can be interpreted and valued as real options that are affected by uncertainties. Taken together, the real options indicate how much extra inventory shippers should maintain to mitigate risks and maximize profits.
期刊介绍：
Agribusiness: An International Journal publishes research that improves our understanding of how food systems work, how they are evolving, and how public and/or private actions affect the performance of the global agro-industrial complex. The journal focuses on the application of economic analysis to the organization and performance of firms and markets in industrial food systems. Subject matter areas include supply and demand analysis, industrial organization analysis, price and trade analysis, marketing, finance, and public policy analysis. International, cross-country comparative, and within-country studies are welcome. To facilitate research the journal’s Forum section, on an intermittent basis, offers commentary and reports on business policy issues.
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