Corruption dynamics: a mathematical model and analysis

Beza Zeleke Aga, Hika Gemechu Tasisa, T. Keno, Adugna Gadisa Geleta, Dechasa Wegi Dinsa, Abebe Geletu
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Abstract

This study proposes and analyzes a deterministic mathematical model to describe the dynamics of corruption transmission. We began by proving that the solution to the model is bounded and positive. The next-generation matrix approach is used to compute the basic reproduction number (R0) in relation to corruption-free equilibrium. The Jacobian and Lyapunov functions are used to show that corruption-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable in both locally and globally when R0<1, and otherwise, an endemic corruption equilibrium develops. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the model's parameters was investigated. The findings demonstrate that religious precepts govern public education. The two sectors most susceptible to corruption control are education and corrections. The study recommends investing more in the provision of public education to citizens by creating awareness among all and including it in the education curriculum and religious leaders to teach their followers seriously about the impact of corruption as well as the use of jail as punishment. The numerical simulation results agreed with the analytical results.
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腐败动态:数学模型与分析
本研究提出并分析了一个描述腐败传播动态的确定性数学模型。我们首先证明了该模型的解是有界和正的。我们使用新一代矩阵方法计算了与无腐败平衡相关的基本繁殖数(R0)。雅各布函数和莱普诺夫函数被用来证明,当 R0<1 时,无腐败均衡在局部和全局上都是渐近稳定的,反之,则会形成地方性腐败均衡。此外,还研究了模型参数的敏感性。研究结果表明,宗教戒律制约着公共教育。教育和惩教是最容易受到腐败控制的两个部门。研究建议加大对公民公共教育的投入,提高全民意识,并将其纳入教育课程,同时建议宗教领袖向其信徒认真传授腐败的影响以及使用监狱作为惩罚的方法。数值模拟结果与分析结果一致。
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