New Estimates on the Cost of a Delay Day in Drug Development.

Abstract

Two frequently cited figures by clinical research insiders and observers - the cost of missing a day to generate prescription drug sales and the cost of a day to conduct a clinical trial - are outdated and based on anecdotal evidence. In late 2023, the Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development conducted empirical research to gather more accurate and granular estimates and to test whether average sales per day have changed over time. 645 drugs launched since 2000, and 409 clinical trial budgets were drawn from commercially available and proprietary data sets and analyzed. The results indicate that a single day equals approximately $500,000 in lost prescription drug or biologic sales, with daily prescription sales for infectious, hematologic, cardiovascular, and gastrointestinal diseases among the highest. The results also show that each year, the average sales per day of prescription drugs and biologics has decreased by approximately $80,000-$100,000. The estimated direct daily cost to conduct a clinical trial is approximately $40,000 per day for phase II and III clinical trials, with those in respiratory, rheumatology, and dermatology having the highest relative daily direct costs.