Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Water Resources in Citarum Watershed during Weak La Nina and Weak El Nino

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamics of water resources in the Citarum watershed during periods of weak La Niña, normal, and weak El Niño conditions occurring sequentially. The Citarum watershed serves various purposes, being utilized not only by seven (7) districts and two (2) cities in West Java, Indonesia but also as a source of raw water for drinking in the City of Jakarta. Using a time-series analysis of surface water data, data-driven (machine learning) methods, and statistical analysis methods, spatiotemporal predictions of surface water have been made. The surface water time series data (2017–2021), obtained from in situ instruments, are used to assess water resources, predict groundwater recharge, and analyze seasonal patterns. The results indicate that surface water follows a seasonal pattern, particularly during the monsoon season, corresponding to the groundwater recharge pattern. In upstream areas, water resources exhibit an increasing trend during both weak La Nina and weak El Niño, except for Jatiluhur Dam, where a decline is observed in both seasons. Machine learning predictions suggest that water levels and groundwater recharge tend to decrease in both upstream and downstream areas.