The relevance of development policies to confront crisis situations: World Bank’s early response to Covid-19

Abstract

Evaluating the relevance of development policies is a complex task as many different dimensions must be considered. By focusing on one particular, quantifiable aspect of relevance, this study proposes a new method for generating data-driven evidence that can be used both for assessing the relevance of international development policies ex post, and for guiding decisions about future strategic priorities. For this purpose, relevance is defined as the match between (i) the types and scopes of support provided and (ii) the types and scopes of support most needed in a given context, according to measurable indicators (proxies). The latter is operationalized using a multidimensional vulnerability score constructed based on a set of empirical indicators commonly argued to proxy vulnerability to shocks. Comparing the vulnerability score with the sector-specific allocation of support yields two empirical measures of relevance, one at the country level and one at the sector level within each country. The proposed method is then applied to evaluate the relevance of the World Bank Group’s early response to Covid-19 across 133 countries. At the same time, many of the modeling insights are more broadly applicable and may also be useful in informing evaluations of development policies beyond the specific application considered here.