Simulations of Future Trends in Welfare-Centric Egg Production Systems: Impacts on Productivity and Prices.

IF 1.8 4区 农林科学 Q2 AGRICULTURE, DAIRY & ANIMAL SCIENCE Journal of Poultry Science Pub Date : 2024-06-09 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI:10.2141/jpsa.2024019
Hiromi Kato, Tomoya Shimasaki, Ken-Ichi Yayou
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Abstract

The implementation of more animal welfare-centric livestock production systems holds considerable potential for achieving sustainable production in Japan. However, such systems generally reduce productivity per unit area, impose financial burdens on farmers that adversely affect their physical and mental health, and require increased consumer awareness. In particular, declines in productivity per unit area substantially affect the farming economy, giving rise to concerns about the sufficient egg production for the population, which consequently exacerbates Japan's food security concerns. In this study, our goal was to predict temporal trends in the Japanese transition to welfare-centric facilities by analyzing desired egg consumption. We formulated five scenarios, ending in 2050, to assess the future impact of changing the proportions of types of egg production on total production, numbers of hens, total farm area, production costs, and retail prices. Multiple issues were identified in our analysis. First, Japanese production uses conventional caging, which provides high efficiency, maximum output, and decreased prices. Our simulations suggest that ensuring optimal production is likely to present challenges as animal welfare is addressed. They also suggest that the poultry industry or the Japanese government will likely need to plan changes in production methods will likely be necessary to prevent egg surpluses and/or shortages. Additional issues were identified, including price increases, numbers of hens, total farm area, and production costs. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers in their decision-making processes to help optimize production methods while considering food security, animal welfare, and farmers' welfare.

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以福利为中心的鸡蛋生产系统的未来趋势模拟:对生产率和价格的影响。
在日本,实施更加以动物福利为中心的畜牧生产系统对实现可持续生产具有相当大的潜力。然而,这种体系通常会降低单位面积的生产率,给农民带来经济负担,对他们的身心健康造成不利影响,而且需要提高消费者的意识。特别是,单位面积生产率的下降严重影响了农业经济,使人们担心鸡蛋产量是否足以满足人口需要,从而加剧了日本的粮食安全问题。在本研究中,我们的目标是通过分析期望的鸡蛋消费量,预测日本向以福利为中心的设施过渡的时间趋势。我们制定了以 2050 年为终点的五种情景,以评估改变鸡蛋生产类型的比例对总产量、母鸡数量、农场总面积、生产成本和零售价格的未来影响。我们在分析中发现了多个问题。首先,日本的生产采用传统的笼养方式,效率高、产量大、价格低。我们的模拟结果表明,随着动物福利问题的解决,确保最佳生产可能会面临挑战。模拟结果还表明,家禽业或日本政府可能需要计划改变生产方法,以防止鸡蛋过剩和/或短缺。研究还发现了其他问题,包括价格上涨、母鸡数量、农场总面积和生产成本。这项研究为政策制定者的决策过程提供了宝贵的见解,有助于在考虑食品安全、动物福利和农民福利的同时优化生产方法。
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来源期刊
Journal of Poultry Science
Journal of Poultry Science AGRICULTURE, DAIRY & ANIMAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
13.30%
发文量
26
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Poultry Science will publish original reports and reviews which either make an original contribution to fundamental science or are of obvious application to the industry. Subjects which are covered include: breeding and genetics, nutrition and feeds, physiology, reproduction, immunology, behavior, environmental science, management and housing welfare, processing and products, and health in poultry. Submission of original articles to the Journal is open to all poultry researchers. The review articles are invited papers written by international outstanding researchers. Articles will be published in English, American style.
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