{"title":"Prediction model for severe maternal morbidity in pregnant women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy.","authors":"Yan Bian, Shuisen Zheng, Xiuwu Liu, Xiuming Jiang","doi":"10.12669/pjms.40.6.9095","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To investigate risk factors for severe maternal morbidity (SMM) in pregnant women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) and to develop a risk prediction model.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A prospective observational cohort study was conducted among pregnant women who were hospitalized for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) between January 2016 and December 2020 in Fujian College of Clinical Medicine for Obstetrics & Gynecology and Pediatrics, Fujian Province, China (a training set), and a risk predictive model was constructed. Pregnant women with HDP who were hospitalized between January 2021 and December 2021 were selected as a validation set. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves were used to test predictive model discrimination and calibration.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We included 970 pregnant women (790 in the training set and 180 in the validation set). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to screen for nine related variables such as intra-uterine growth retardation (IUGR), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) at suspected diagnosis, total bilirubin, albumin (ALB), uric acid, total cholesterol, serum magnesium, and suspected gestational age. SBP at suspected diagnosis (OR =1.22, 95%CI:1.08-1.42) and total cholesterol (OR = 1.78, 95%CI:1.17-2.80) were independent risk factors of severe maternal morbidity in pregnant women with HDP. A nomogram was constructed, and internal validation of the nomogram model was done using the bootstrap self-sampling method. C-index in the training and the validation set was 0.798 and 0.909, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Our prediction model can be used to determine gestational hypertension severity in pregnant women.</p>","PeriodicalId":19958,"journal":{"name":"Pakistan Journal of Medical Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11190401/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pakistan Journal of Medical Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.12669/pjms.40.6.9095","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Objectives: To investigate risk factors for severe maternal morbidity (SMM) in pregnant women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) and to develop a risk prediction model.
Methods: A prospective observational cohort study was conducted among pregnant women who were hospitalized for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) between January 2016 and December 2020 in Fujian College of Clinical Medicine for Obstetrics & Gynecology and Pediatrics, Fujian Province, China (a training set), and a risk predictive model was constructed. Pregnant women with HDP who were hospitalized between January 2021 and December 2021 were selected as a validation set. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves were used to test predictive model discrimination and calibration.
Results: We included 970 pregnant women (790 in the training set and 180 in the validation set). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to screen for nine related variables such as intra-uterine growth retardation (IUGR), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) at suspected diagnosis, total bilirubin, albumin (ALB), uric acid, total cholesterol, serum magnesium, and suspected gestational age. SBP at suspected diagnosis (OR =1.22, 95%CI:1.08-1.42) and total cholesterol (OR = 1.78, 95%CI:1.17-2.80) were independent risk factors of severe maternal morbidity in pregnant women with HDP. A nomogram was constructed, and internal validation of the nomogram model was done using the bootstrap self-sampling method. C-index in the training and the validation set was 0.798 and 0.909, respectively.
Conclusion: Our prediction model can be used to determine gestational hypertension severity in pregnant women.
期刊介绍:
It is a peer reviewed medical journal published regularly since 1984. It was previously known as quarterly "SPECIALIST" till December 31st 1999. It publishes original research articles, review articles, current practices, short communications & case reports. It attracts manuscripts not only from within Pakistan but also from over fifty countries from abroad.
Copies of PJMS are sent to all the import medical libraries all over Pakistan and overseas particularly in South East Asia and Asia Pacific besides WHO EMRO Region countries. Eminent members of the medical profession at home and abroad regularly contribute their write-ups, manuscripts in our publications. We pursue an independent editorial policy, which allows an opportunity to the healthcare professionals to express their views without any fear or favour. That is why many opinion makers among the medical and pharmaceutical profession use this publication to communicate their viewpoint.