Temporal instability of factors affecting injury severity in single-vehicle crashes on rural highways

Abstract

To study the time-of-day variations and temporal stabilities of factors influencing single-vehicle crashes on rural highways, random parameters logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances under different time periods of the day and from year to year were estimated to identify significant factors. The potential crash-influencing factors in drivers, vehicles, roads, and the environment were analyzed to dissect the correlation and variability between the influencing factors and crash injury severity. Likelihood ratio tests were conducted to assess the transferability of model estimation results from different times of the day and from year to year. The results showed that the effect of factors that determine injury severity varied significantly across time-of-day/time-period combinations. Overall temporal instability was observed in the study. However, several explanatory variables showed temporally stable effects in terms of their impact on resulting injury severities. Such as male, driver age (<30), truck, non-dry road surface, and visibility (100–200 m).