Burgeoning food demand outpaces sustainable water supply in China

Abstract

China’s agricultural sector has long realized innovation to meet burgeoning food demand, yet often innovation has occurred without concurrent consideration of trade-offs on blue water security. We contend that food security and blue water security should be given equal priority if sustainable production and consumption policies are to be defined. Here, we quantify the interplay between blue water and food security in China from 1990 to 2020 using blue water footprint (BWF) and blue water boundary as lenses. We find that national agri-food BWF has grown over time, being only 4 % below the sustainability boundary in 2020, and with the number of provinces with unsustainable system states increasing from nine in 1990s to 17 in 2010s. While blue water security and minimum food security have been achieved since 2012, the food consumption BWF has surpassed national food production and the BWF boundary by 32 % and 26 % in 2020, respectively. Assuming trends continue ceteris paribus, we project that China’s BWF will transgress the sustainability boundary by 2025. Even so, with appropriate intervention in production, supply chains, and consumption guidelines, the food demand/water supply conundrum could be equitable and sustainable, notwithstanding higher food consumption in 2030. This study clearly addressed the contradictions potential balancing between blue water and food security in China at the national scale, and we articulate a simple, scalable approach for nations facing water scarcity to deconstruct drivers of, and develop alternative futures for, sustainable water and food security.