El Chichón volcanic activity before and after the Mw8.2, 2017, Chiapas earthquake, México. Is El Chichón ready to erupt?

Abstract

El Chichón volcano is the most active volcano in the state of Chiapas, México, and experienced its last Plinian eruption (VEI = 5) in 1982. To better assess its volcanic hazard, we studied its readiness to erupt by estimating changes in its internal stress state. These stress changes are difficult to calculate accurately, for example in the absence of focal mechanisms, but their existence can be indirectly revealed by the presence of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, for example following a large tectonic earthquake. We show that the seismic rate recorded at El Chichón volcano increased slightly after the large M_w8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake of 8 September 2017, Chiapas. However, this rate quickly returned to its background level after only 2 months, without any external volcanic manifestations, suggesting that the volcano is not ready to erupt in the near future. Previous observations of slight increases in the volcanic seismicity rate following large earthquakes have been explained by the presence of active hydrothermal systems in the vicinity of the volcano. We propose a similar explanation for El Chichón volcano which is known for its large hydrothermal system. Furthermore, the characteristics of the 2017 seismicity (spatial and magnitude distributions), and the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio also confirm the presence of high amounts of water near the volcano. We show that the 2017 volcano-tectonic seismicity is of hydrothermal rather than magmatic origin, in agreement with recent independent geochemical and aeromagnetic studies.