Prevalence of cancer survivors in the United States.

IF 9.9 1区 医学 Q1 ONCOLOGY JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1093/jnci/djae135
Emily Tonorezos, Theresa Devasia, Angela B Mariotto, Michelle A Mollica, Lisa Gallicchio, Paige Green, Michelle Doose, Rachelle Brick, Brennan Streck, Crystal Reed, Janet S de Moor
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Abstract

Background: With aging of the population and improvements in diagnosis, treatment, and supportive care, the number of cancer survivors in the United States has increased; updated prevalence estimates are needed.

Methods: Cancer prevalence on January 1, 2022, was estimated using the Prevalence Incidence Approach Model, utilizing incidence, survival, and mortality. Prevalence by age decade, sex, and time from diagnosis was calculated. The percentage of cancer survivors in the projected US population by age and sex was calculated as the ratio of the sex-specific projected prevalence to the sex-specific projected US population.

Results: There were an estimated 18.1 million US cancer survivors as of January 1, 2022. From 2022 to 2030, the number of US cancer survivors is projected to increase to 21.6 million; by 2040, the number is projected to be 26 million. Long-term survivors are highly prevalent; in 2022, 70% of cancer survivors had lived 5 years or more after diagnosis, and 11% of cancer survivors had lived 25 years or more after diagnosis. Among all US females aged 40-54 years, 3.6% were cancer survivors; among females aged 65-74 years, 14.5% were cancer survivors; among females aged 85 years and older, 36.4% were cancer survivors. Among all US males aged 40-54 years, 2.1% were cancer survivors; among males aged 65-74 years, 16% were cancer survivors; and among those aged 85 years and older, 48.3% were cancer survivors.

Conclusions: Cancer survivors are growing in number. In the United States, most cancer survivors are long-term and very long-term survivors, representing a substantial proportion of the US population.

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美国癌症幸存者的患病率。
背景:随着人口老龄化以及诊断、治疗和支持性护理的改善,美国癌症幸存者的人数有所增加;需要更新患病率估计值:方法:利用发病率、存活率和死亡率,采用 "流行发病率方法模型 "对 2022 年 1 月 1 日的癌症流行率进行了估算。按年龄段、性别和确诊时间计算患病率。按年龄和性别推算的美国人口中癌症幸存者的比例是按性别推算的发病率与按性别推算的美国人口之比计算得出的:结果:截至 2022 年 1 月 1 日,美国癌症幸存者估计有 1810 万人。从 2022 年到 2030 年,美国癌症幸存者人数预计将增至 2160 万;到 2040 年,预计将达到 2600 万。长期幸存者的比例很高;2022 年,70% 的癌症幸存者在确诊后存活了 5 年或更长时间,11% 的癌症幸存者在确诊后存活了 25 年或更长时间。在所有 40-54 岁的美国女性中,3.6% 是癌症幸存者;在 65-74 岁的女性中,14.5% 是癌症幸存者;在 85 岁及以上的女性中,36.4% 是癌症幸存者。在所有 40-54 岁的美国男性中,2.1% 是癌症幸存者;在 65-74 岁的男性中,16% 是癌症幸存者;在 85 岁及以上的男性中,48.3% 是癌症幸存者:结论:癌症幸存者的人数在不断增加。在美国,大多数癌症幸存者都是长期和非常长期的幸存者,占美国人口的很大比例。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
17.00
自引率
2.90%
发文量
203
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of the National Cancer Institute is a reputable publication that undergoes a peer-review process. It is available in both print (ISSN: 0027-8874) and online (ISSN: 1460-2105) formats, with 12 issues released annually. The journal's primary aim is to disseminate innovative and important discoveries in the field of cancer research, with specific emphasis on clinical, epidemiologic, behavioral, and health outcomes studies. Authors are encouraged to submit reviews, minireviews, and commentaries. The journal ensures that submitted manuscripts undergo a rigorous and expedited review to publish scientifically and medically significant findings in a timely manner.
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