The emerging international trade in hydrogen: Environmental policies, innovation, and trade dynamics

IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Journal of Environmental Economics and Management Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI:10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103035
Werner Antweiler , David Schlund
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Abstract

Hydrogen produced from renewable energy and other carbon-neutral sources has the potential of becoming an important medium for storing and transporting energy, partially taking on the role that fossil fuels play to date. We develop a novel theoretical and empirical model of sequential trade based on long-term contracts with one or more fixed-capacity projects entering each period in a modified Nash-Cournot competition. We simulate the emerging international trade in hydrogen using calibrated demand, supply, transportation, and policy data, exploring a set of scenarios to determine which factors have significant influence—in particular environmental, innovation, and trade policies. Our findings suggest that hydrogen trade exhibits significant price dispersion and two-way trade as vintages of contracts overlap in a market defined by endogenous innovation and policy interventions. Trade costs and the mode of transportation (pipelines or ammonia conversion, possibly others) play a pivotal role and influence the relative share of hydrogen production types (green, blue, or turquoise). Trade policies emerge as a more essential determinant of hydrogen trade than carbon and innovation policies.

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新兴的国际氢贸易:环境政策、创新和贸易动态
利用可再生能源和其他碳中性能源生产的氢有可能成为储存和运输能源的重要媒介,部分取代化石燃料迄今所发挥的作用。我们建立了一个新颖的理论和实证模型,该模型以长期合同为基础,每期都有一个或多个固定产能项目进入修改后的纳什-库尔诺竞争。我们利用经过校准的需求、供应、运输和政策数据模拟了新兴的氢气国际贸易,探索了一系列方案,以确定哪些因素具有重大影响,特别是环境、创新和贸易政策。我们的研究结果表明,在一个由内生性创新和政策干预决定的市场中,随着合同年份的重叠,氢贸易表现出明显的价格分散和双向贸易。贸易成本和运输方式(管道或氨转化,可能还有其他)起着关键作用,并影响着氢气生产类型(绿色、蓝色或绿松石色)的相对份额。与碳政策和创新政策相比,贸易政策对氢贸易的决定作用更为重要。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.00
自引率
4.30%
发文量
91
期刊介绍: The Journal of Environmental Economics and Management publishes theoretical and empirical papers devoted to specific natural resources and environmental issues. For consideration, papers should (1) contain a substantial element embodying the linkage between economic systems and environmental and natural resources systems or (2) be of substantial importance in understanding the management and/or social control of the economy in its relations with the natural environment. Although the general orientation of the journal is toward economics, interdisciplinary papers by researchers in other fields of interest to resource and environmental economists will be welcomed.
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