Gap acceptance behaviour and crash risks of mobile phone distracted young drivers at roundabouts: A random parameters survival model

Abstract

Navigating through complex road geometries, such as roundabouts, poses significant challenges and safety risks for drivers. These challenges may be exacerbated when drivers are distracted by mobile phone conversations. The interplay of road geometry, driving state, and driver characteristics in creating compound risks remains an underexplored area in existing literature. Proper understanding of such compound crash risk is not only crucial to improve road geometric design but also to educate young drivers, who are particularly risk-takers and to devise strict penalties for mobile phone usage whilst driving. To fill this gap, this study examines crash risks associated with gap acceptance manoeuvres at roundabouts in the simulated environment of the CARRS-Q driving simulators, where 32 licenced young drivers were exposed to a gap acceptance scenario in three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), handheld, and hands-free. A parametric random parameters survival modelling approach is adopted to understand safety margins—characterised by gap times—during gap acceptance scenarios at roundabouts, concurrently uncover driver-level heterogeneity with mobile phone distraction and capture repeated measures of experiment design. The model specification includes the handheld phone condition as a random parameter and hands-free phone condition, acceleration noise, gap size, crash history, and gender as non-random parameters. Results suggest that the majority of handheld distracted drivers have smaller safety margins, reflecting the negative consequences of engaging in handheld phone conversations. Interestingly, a group of drivers in the same handheld phone condition have been found to exhibit cautious/safer behaviour, as evidenced by longer gap times, reflecting their risk compensation behaviour. Female distracted drivers are also found to exhibit safer gap acceptance behaviour compared to distracted male drivers. The findings of this study shed light on the compound risk of mobile phone distraction and gap acceptance at roundabouts, requiring policymakers and authorities to devise strict penalties and laws for distracted driving.