Feeling the heat: Extreme temperatures and housing prices in China

Abstract

Climate change-driven extreme heat events pose a major threat to urban expansion globally. This study evaluates the relationship between extreme heat and housing prices utilizing panel data from Chinese cities between 2009 and 2019. Our findings indicate a significant negative correlation between housing prices and extreme temperatures. Specifically, we observe a 0.1% reduction in housing prices for each additional day per year with temperatures surpassing 35°C. This research evaluates two primary mechanisms underpinning this finding. Firstly, our analysis demonstrates a decline in labor inflows to cities experiencing extreme heat, with a particularly significant effect on the influx of high-skilled workers. In addition, existing residents in these hotter urban environments exhibit reduced home-buying intentions and reduced proclivity for long-term residency, coupled with higher living costs. Secondly, our findings indicate that extreme heat acts as a deterrent to firm entry, thereby further suppressing housing demand. This study contributes valuable empirical insights into the capitalization of climate risk in housing markets, with a specific emphasis on the effect of extreme heat. Moreover, it highlights the urgent necessity for the development and implementation of sustainable adaptation strategies to reduce the negative effects of evolving climatic conditions.