Dynamic Monitoring of Ecological Quality in Eastern Ukraine Amidst the Russia‐Ukraine Conflict

Chaofei Zhang, Zhanghua Xu, Yuanyao Yang, Lei Sun, Haitao Li
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Abstract

To evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in the ecological environment of eastern Ukraine since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this study used MODIS images from March to September 2020 and 2022 to calculate the Remote Sensing???Based Ecological Index. In 2022, compared with 2020, conflict zones exhibited reduced improvement and increased slight degradation, whereas nonconflict areas showed marginal enhancement. Through propensity score matching, the research confirmed the causal relationship between conflict and ecological trends. Pathway analysis revealed that the conflict contributed to 0.016 units increase in ecological quality while reducing the improvement rate by 0.042 units. This study provides empirical support for understanding the correlation between conflicts and specific environmental factors, offering technical references for ecological quality assessments in other conflict areas and future evaluations by the Ukrainian government.
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在俄乌冲突中动态监测乌克兰东部的生态质量
为评估俄乌冲突以来乌克兰东部生态环境的时空变化,本研究利用 2020 年 3 月至 9 月和 2022 年的 MODIS 图像计算了基于遥感的生态指数。与 2020 年相比,2022 年冲突地区的生态环境改善程度降低,轻微退化程度增加,而非冲突地区的生态环境则略有改善。通过倾向得分匹配,研究证实了冲突与生态趋势之间的因果关系。路径分析显示,冲突导致生态质量提高了 0.016 个单位,而改善率降低了 0.042 个单位。这项研究为理解冲突与特定环境因素之间的相关性提供了经验支持,为其他冲突地区的生态质量评估和乌克兰政府未来的评估提供了技术参考。
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