The role of education attention on high-tech markets in an emerging economy: Evidence from QQR and NCQ techniques

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123603

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Abstract

This study employs quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) and nonparametric causality-in-quantile (NCQ) methods to investigate the asymmetric impact and predictability of education attention on China's high-tech markets. The QQR results reveal a significant positive impact of education attention on high-tech market returns, with asymmetric across volatile and stable market situations. Specifically, basic education attention boosts performance in advanced manufacturing and new energy sectors, vocational and continuing education attention excel during market upturns in biotechnology and environmental industries, and higher education attention could serve as a strong hedge against the high-tech market downturns. Moreover, education attention significantly influences the volatility of high-tech market under normal conditions, uncovering a significant source of market risk sensitivity. The NCQ results highlight the effectiveness of education attention as a predictor for the high-tech market, particularly for aerospace and national defense, new materials, and semiconductor sectors, prominently evident in medium or high quantiles. These findings offer novel insights for investors and policymakers regarding asset pricing and management decisions.

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教育关注对新兴经济体高科技市场的作用：QQR和NCQ技术提供的证据

本研究采用量纲对量纲回归（QQR）和非参数因果关系对量纲回归（NCQ）方法，研究教育关注对中国高科技市场的非对称影响和可预测性。QQR 结果显示，教育关注度对高科技市场回报率有显著的正向影响，且在市场波动和稳定的情况下具有非对称性。具体而言，基础教育关注度会促进先进制造业和新能源行业的表现，职业教育和继续教育关注度在生物技术和环保行业的市场上升期表现突出，而高等教育关注度则可作为高科技市场下滑期的有力对冲工具。此外，在正常情况下，教育关注度会极大地影响高科技市场的波动，从而揭示出市场风险敏感性的一个重要来源。NCQ的结果凸显了教育关注度作为高科技市场预测因子的有效性，尤其是在航空航天与国防、新材料和半导体行业，在中量化或高量化中表现突出。这些发现为投资者和决策者提供了有关资产定价和管理决策的新见解。

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Technological Forecasting and Social Change Multiple-

CiteScore

21.30

自引率

10.80%

发文量

813

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