Analysis of Average Daily Temperature and Precipitation on the Territory of Belarus Using Quantile Regression

IF 0.6 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI:10.3103/s1068373924050030

V. F. Loginov, M. A. Khitrykau

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Abstract

Average daily air temperature and daily total precipitation were analyzed using quantile regression. Quantiles corresponding to the selected extremes, i.e., below 0.1 (only for the analysis of air temperature) and above 0.9 were considered. It has been shown for the majority of cases that the spatial distribution of air temperature quantiles is close to the mean for winter and summer seasons. Specific features of temporal changes in the quantiles of air temperature and total precipitation are in line with the modern climate warming. A statistically significant relationship between air temperature and Earth surface characteristics is observed only for quantiles of 0.9 and more. Due to the complexity of the factors responsible for the formation of high-intensity precipitation, there is no clear pattern in the spatial distribution of the quantiles of daily total precipitation. There is statistically significant relationship between daily total precipitation, orography, and forest cover fraction on the territory.

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利用定量回归分析白俄罗斯境内的日平均气温和降水量

摘要采用量值回归法分析了日平均气温和日总降水量。考虑了与所选极端值（即低于 0.1（仅用于气温分析）和高于 0.9）相对应的量值。结果表明，在大多数情况下，冬季和夏季气温量值的空间分布接近平均值。气温和总降水量的时间变化特征与现代气候变暖相一致。只有当定量为 0.9 及以上时，气温与地球表面特征之间才存在统计意义上的显著关系。由于形成高强度降水的因素复杂，日总降水量的空间分布没有明显的规律。据统计，日总降水量、地形和境内森林覆盖率之间存在显著关系。

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来源期刊

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

1.70

自引率

28.60%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Russian Meteorology and Hydrology is a peer reviewed journal that covers topical issues of hydrometeorological science and practice: methods of forecasting weather and hydrological phenomena, climate monitoring issues, environmental pollution, space hydrometeorology, agrometeorology.