Trend analysis of air temperature in a megacity between two continents: the synoptic weather station in İstanbul Atatürk Airport

Abstract

İstanbul is the largest city located in the Mediterranean Basin and has a medium to high risk of climate change and future climate risks. Changes in temperature and other weather variables have had significant impacts on İstanbul. In this context, there is a need for studies on the issues of climate monitoring and climate change vulnerability to reduce the adverse impacts. The aim of this study is to investigate the temperature trends of synoptic weather station in İstanbul Atatürk Airport between 1973 and 2023 to have a general idea about how the temperature has changed over the last half-century and to establish statistically whether a trend is significant or not. The values of minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax) and mean (Tmean) temperature related parameters were estimated. Annual, monthly and seasonal temperature trends are also analyzed. The findings of this study indicate a significant (p < 0.001) rise in the mean air temperature (Tmean) of İstanbul over the past 51 years (1973–2023), with an annual warming trend of 0.06 °C. The strongest increasing trend in seasonal mean air temperatures has been observed in the summer season, with an increase of 0.08 °C per year. The trend analysis also shows a statistically non-significant increase in yearly average minimum temperature (Tmin) between 1973 and 2023, with a rate of 0.04 °C per year. However, the annual maximum temperature (Tmax) has shown no changes.