Determination of potential hazard level for flood-induced damage during different life cycle stages of T. Aman rice along the floodplain of the Jamuna River

Abstract

Bangladesh, a low-lying deltaic plain formed by the convoluted network of streams within the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin, is one of the worst climate change-induced natural hazards sufferers. Among all the riverine and coastal hazards, floods alone have wreaked havoc on the national economy. This study focused on determining the level of potential hazard of different crop stages of Transplanted Aman (T. Aman) rice based on the coincidence of the crop cycle stages with the duration and depth of flood of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna River system. A 2D hydrodynamic model has been developed using TUFLOW for the Brahmaputra-Jamuna River system under this study. The model simulated results for 2008 and 2019, representing bank-full flow conditions (2008) and a recent flood event (2019). It is seen that the vegetative stage for both the flooding scenarios is most affected for all selected monitoring locations, and the effect of flood events of the other two stages (reproductive and ripening stage) varied spatially. The analysis presented in the study can be used to determine the economic damage incurred to the lower-income community, primarily associated with agriculture. Adaptive actions and mitigation measures can be prioritized to depreciate the loss and damage due to these catastrophic flooding events.