Evaluating industrial heritage value using cloud theory and Dempster–Shafer theory

Abstract

This study proposes a systematic approach to evaluate the value of industrial heritage under conditions of uncertainty. This approach primarily incorporates cloud theory and Dempster–Shafer theory (D–S theory), allowing managers to predict the direction of heritage renovation. Moreover, through this method, corresponding renovation measures and management methods can be formulated based on value levels and probabilities. The normal cloud distribution in cloud theory is more associated with people's judgment of things, while the subordinate cloud is employed to describe the basic probability distribution of factors at different value levels. The D–S theory has considerable advantages in terms of integrating information from multiple sources. This study uses the Shenyang Aircraft Factory as a case study to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of both theories. The results demonstrate that the combination of these two models can integrate knowledge and data, and the results of the value assessment model are in good agreement with the actual situation. In addition, this study provides a useful tool for dealing with uncertainty, randomness, and fuzziness in decision-making, making it easier for managers to develop appropriate building renovation plans.