{"title":"Did the entry of the corn ethanol industry in Brazil affect the relationship between domestic and international corn prices?","authors":"Marcelo Justus, Luciane Chiodi Bachion, Sofia Marques Arantes, Marcelo Melo Ramalho Moreira, Luciano Rodrigues","doi":"10.1111/gcbb.13181","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the relationship between corn prices in Brazil and the international market, considering a rise in corn ethanol production in Brazil's Midwest region since 2017. Did the entry of the corn ethanol industry in Brazil affect the relationship between domestic and international corn prices? A cointegration analysis was made with a monthly time series from May 2005 to August 2023 controlling for different exogenous events or shocks that may have affected global agricultural markets. The study's findings indicate a stable long-term relationship between the international and Brazilian corn prices, with changes in international prices being predictors of variations in Brazilian domestic prices, while the opposite was not statistically supported. The study also found no evidence to support the claim that the entry of the corn ethanol industry into Mato Grosso state in 2017 impacted the prices paid to local producers. Therefore, the increase in Brazilian corn prices cannot be attributed to additional demand for corn by local mills, an important result that contributes to discussions such as food versus fuel and indirect land use change.</p>","PeriodicalId":55126,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology Bioenergy","volume":"16 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcbb.13181","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Global Change Biology Bioenergy","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcbb.13181","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRONOMY","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between corn prices in Brazil and the international market, considering a rise in corn ethanol production in Brazil's Midwest region since 2017. Did the entry of the corn ethanol industry in Brazil affect the relationship between domestic and international corn prices? A cointegration analysis was made with a monthly time series from May 2005 to August 2023 controlling for different exogenous events or shocks that may have affected global agricultural markets. The study's findings indicate a stable long-term relationship between the international and Brazilian corn prices, with changes in international prices being predictors of variations in Brazilian domestic prices, while the opposite was not statistically supported. The study also found no evidence to support the claim that the entry of the corn ethanol industry into Mato Grosso state in 2017 impacted the prices paid to local producers. Therefore, the increase in Brazilian corn prices cannot be attributed to additional demand for corn by local mills, an important result that contributes to discussions such as food versus fuel and indirect land use change.
期刊介绍：
GCB Bioenergy is an international journal publishing original research papers, review articles and commentaries that promote understanding of the interface between biological and environmental sciences and the production of fuels directly from plants, algae and waste. The scope of the journal extends to areas outside of biology to policy forum, socioeconomic analyses, technoeconomic analyses and systems analysis. Papers do not need a global change component for consideration for publication, it is viewed as implicit that most bioenergy will be beneficial in avoiding at least a part of the fossil fuel energy that would otherwise be used.
Key areas covered by the journal:
Bioenergy feedstock and bio-oil production: energy crops and algae their management,, genomics, genetic improvements, planting, harvesting, storage, transportation, integrated logistics, production modeling, composition and its modification, pests, diseases and weeds of feedstocks. Manuscripts concerning alternative energy based on biological mimicry are also encouraged (e.g. artificial photosynthesis).
Biological Residues/Co-products: from agricultural production, forestry and plantations (stover, sugar, bio-plastics, etc.), algae processing industries, and municipal sources (MSW).
Bioenergy and the Environment: ecosystem services, carbon mitigation, land use change, life cycle assessment, energy and greenhouse gas balances, water use, water quality, assessment of sustainability, and biodiversity issues.
Bioenergy Socioeconomics: examining the economic viability or social acceptability of crops, crops systems and their processing, including genetically modified organisms [GMOs], health impacts of bioenergy systems.
Bioenergy Policy: legislative developments affecting biofuels and bioenergy.
Bioenergy Systems Analysis: examining biological developments in a whole systems context.
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