Spatiotemporal characteristics and triggers of flash droughts across all the river basins in India

Abstract

Flash Droughts (FDs) have attracted widespread attention in recent years due to their sudden onset and rapid intensification with significant impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and agriculture. These features of FDs pose unique challenges for their forecast, monitoring, and mitigation. The impact of FDs on society can vary depending on several factors, such as the frequency of their occurrence, rate of intensification, and mean severity, which are not well understood and remain unclear specifically over India. This study developed a novel approach to quantitatively define FD based on the aridity index. This new approach was used to examine spatiotemporal characteristics (including trends) and triggers of FDs over 25 river basins across India from 1981 to 2021. The hydrometeorological conditions, including soil moisture percentiles, anomalies of precipitation, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit were investigated at different stages of FD. Results suggest that FDs with high intensification rates are more common in humid areas compared to sub-humid and semi-arid areas. Both precipitation and temperature are primary triggers of FDs over a major part of the study area. The individual effects of soil moisture and precipitation also act as a trigger across some regions (like northeast India and the Western Ghats). Additionally, atmospheric aridity can create conditions conducive to FDs, and when combined with depleted soil moisture, it can accelerate their rapid onset. Besides the scientific novelty, the findings of this study will facilitate policymakers to formulate effective strategies to mitigate the consequences of FDs on water resources and agriculture in India.