Climate change impacts on the distribution of Dryomys laniger (woolly dormouse) in Türkiye: a data-driven approach

Abstract

This study examines the population structure, ecological niche, and vulnerability to climate change of the woolly dormouse Dryomys laniger in Türkiye. Integrating genetic data with species distribution modeling, the research predicts suitable habitats for D. laniger under current and future climate change scenarios until the year 2100. Using an ensemble of two machine learning models, this study finds that by 2040, the range of D. laniger will be reduced significantly, particularly in southern populations. Eastern areas emerge as a potential refuge, showing slight expansion and colonization. The low genetic diversity in this eastern population indicates the need for long-term adaptability of D. laniger. Due to the unique adaptive potential of each population, this research highlights the importance of region-specific management plans to ensure the long-term survival of this species, which appears to be vulnerable to habitat fragmentation.