Rural-urban migration within Russia: Prospects and drivers

Abstract

This study investigates migration flows between urban and rural areas in Russia from 2011 to 2020 and explores potential drivers using a combination of Markov chain and spatial interaction modelling approaches. The findings indicate a high likelihood of rural-to-urban migration, leading to increased urbanization pressure and depopulation of rural areas in the country, further worsened by high mortality and low fertility rates. Socioeconomic and environmental factors, including population size, wages, employment, housing availability and precipitation, have a significant impact on migration flows, and the effects tend to vary according to whether the origin and destination are rural or urban. In general, origin effects are more pronounced than destination effects, meaning that the decision to migrate in Russia is mainly influenced by departure factors.