Does gambling expenditure have any effect on crime?

Abstract

Background and aims

Australians spend more per capita on gambling than any other country in the world. Electronic gaming machines (EGM) expenditure accounts for almost 90% of this expenditure. No study to date has conducted a rigorous longitudinal analysis of the relationship between gambling expenditure and crime. This study aimed to estimate the short- and long-run relationship between gambling expenditure and crime.

Design

Longitudinal analysis using panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling.

Setting and cases

Recorded property and violent crimes committed in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, between 28 December 2015 and 5 January 2020.

Measurements

Monthly gross EGM expenditure profit, broken down by Local Government Area (LGA). Monthly recorded rates of assault, break enter and steal (dwelling), break enter and steal (non-dwelling), break enter and steal (total), motor vehicle theft, stealing from a motor vehicle, stealing from a retail store, stealing from the person, stealing (total) and fraud.

Findings

Each 10% increase in gambling expenditure in NSW is associated with annual: 7.4% increase in assaults, 10.5% increase in break and enter (dwelling) offences; 10.3% increase in break and enter (non-dwelling) offences; 11% increase in motor vehicle theft offences; 8.2% increase in stealing from motor vehicle offences; and 7.4% increase in fraud offences.

Conclusion

Electronic gaming expenditure appears to be positively associated with property and violent crime in New South Wales, Australia.