The nature, causes, and effects of skepticism on technology diffusion

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123663

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Abstract

Although skepticism is involved in technical change and scientific revolutions, surprisingly, the literature lacks a systematic analysis of the different forms, causes, and roles of skepticism in the diffusion of innovation.

This paper defines, identifies and models different types and causes of skepticism and their role in technology adoption. The paper identifies and studies: skepticism involving the characteristics of the technology and the producer; skepticism that induces to disbelieve market signal; and comparative skepticism i.e., skepticism produced by an unbalance relationship between the perceived complexity of the problem and the solution.

Among the theoretical findings of the paper and regarding skepticism on market signals, we found that the non-differentiability and oscillation of diffusion rates occur if individuals use the information on diffusion rates as proxy of the probability of technology working and modify this probability according to their skepticism.

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怀疑论的性质、原因及对技术推广的影响

虽然技术变革和科学革命中都存在怀疑主义，但令人惊讶的是，文献中缺乏对怀疑主义在创新传播中的不同形式、原因和作用的系统分析。本文确定并研究了：涉及技术和生产者特征的怀疑论；诱使人们不相信市场信号的怀疑论；以及比较怀疑论，即由不平衡产生的怀疑论、在本文的理论发现和对市场信号的怀疑方面，我们发现，如果个人使用传播率信息来代表技术发挥作用的概率，并根据自己的怀疑态度来改变这种概率，那么传播率就会出现无差别和振荡。

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来源期刊

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Multiple-

CiteScore

21.30

自引率

10.80%

发文量

813

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