Stochastic effects on plankton dynamics: Insights from a realistic 0-dimensional marine biogeochemical model

Abstract

Marine ecosystems exist in a noisy and uncertain environment, not governed by deterministic laws. The development of ecological communities is significantly influenced by variability, and the interaction between nonlinearity and stochastic processes can lead to phenomena that deterministic models cannot explain. Plankton, forming the base of the marine food web, are highly affected by stochastic fluctuations due to their short reproductive timescales. Investigating the effects of noise on plankton growth is essential for accurately describing and predicting marine health. We present a realistic biogeochemical model where multiplicative white noise represents environmental stochasticity affecting plankton. The model suggests ergodic properties in the presence of stochastic fluctuations, with temporal and ensemble distributions being coherent. Analytical and numerical analyses reveal that, given sufficiently low noise intensity, dynamics near equilibrium resemble an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck additive process. With higher noise intensities, resonance occurs, particularly when endogenous dynamics are periodic. The results indicate that low noise intensity can positively influence plankton persistence with an higher number of species coexisting, while higher noise intensity can establish a new equilibrium in the system.