Does digital global value chain participation reduce energy resilience? Evidence from 49 countries worldwide

IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123712
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Abstract

The digital global value chains (DGVCs) embody the two major characteristics of the current era: globalization and digitalization. The DGVCs has a major impact on global economic development, but few studies have explored its impact on the energy system. We divide digital global value chain participation (DGVCP) into forward digital global value chain participation (FDGVCP) and backward digital global value chain participation (BDGVCP) and analyze their effect on energy resilience by employing panel data from 49 countries from 2007 to 2019. Our benchmark regression results provide empirical evidence of the negative effects of DGVCP, showing that FDGVCP and BDGVCP reduce energy resilience. Moreover, the negative impact of FDGVCP and BDGVCP is stronger in a transparent institutional environment. The results remain robust after causal identification. The mechanism analysis results show that FDGVCP and BDGVCP influence energy resilience through the scale channel, structure channel, and technology channel. Our research reveals that the DGVCs have a negative impact on energy resilience, contrasting with the conclusions of previous mainstream studies. Our findings underscore some important implications for avoiding the negative effects of DGVCs and enhancing energy resilience.

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全球价值链数字化参与是否会降低能源复原力?来自全球 49 个国家的证据
数字化全球价值链(DGVCs)体现了当今时代的两大特征:全球化和数字化。DGVCs 对全球经济发展产生了重大影响,但很少有研究探讨其对能源系统的影响。我们将数字全球价值链参与(DGVCP)分为前向数字全球价值链参与(FDGVCP)和后向数字全球价值链参与(BDGVCP),并采用 49 个国家 2007 年至 2019 年的面板数据分析其对能源恢复力的影响。我们的基准回归结果提供了 DGVCP 负面影响的实证证据,表明 FDGVCP 和 BDGVCP 会降低能源复原力。此外,在透明的制度环境中,FDGVCP 和 BDGVCP 的负面影响更大。因果识别后,结果依然稳健。机制分析结果表明,FDGVCP 和 BDGVCP 通过规模渠道、结构渠道和技术渠道影响能源韧性。我们的研究揭示了直接能源价值链对能源复原力的负面影响,这与以往主流研究的结论形成了鲜明对比。我们的研究结果强调了避免 DGVCs 负面影响和提高能源复原力的一些重要意义。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
21.30
自引率
10.80%
发文量
813
期刊介绍: Technological Forecasting and Social Change is a prominent platform for individuals engaged in the methodology and application of technological forecasting and future studies as planning tools, exploring the interconnectedness of social, environmental, and technological factors. In addition to serving as a key forum for these discussions, we offer numerous benefits for authors, including complimentary PDFs, a generous copyright policy, exclusive discounts on Elsevier publications, and more.
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