Regional carbon inequality prediction in China based on shared socioeconomic pathways: A human well-being equity perspective

Abstract

Carbon inequality is strongly related to economic development and human well-being (HWB) improvements. However, relatively little research has been undertaken to predict future interregional carbon inequality in China from an HWB equity perspective based on scenarios combining shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and carbon reduction policies. The biproportional scaling method named after economist Richard Stone (RAS) was used to predict China's 2020 to 2050 multiregional input–output (MRIO) tables. Then, these MRIO tables were used to simulate future net carbon emissions (NCEs) and net human well-being (NWB) transfers under the SSP1–1.5 °C, SSP1-NEU, SSP2-2 °C and SSP5-BAU scenarios. China's interregional carbon inequality was predicted under different scenarios to clarify the ideal path for mitigating carbon inequality. In the SSP1–1.5 °C, SSP1-NEU, SSP2-2 °C and SSP5-BAU scenarios, the total carbon emissions (CEs) clearly decrease, whereas the total HWB clearly increases. Transfers of NCEs between regions increases, and transfers of NWB between regions decreases in each of the four scenarios. According to the mean regional environmental inequality (REI) value, China's interregional carbon inequality is relatively low under the SSP1–1.5 °C and SSP1-NEU scenarios and relatively high under the SSP2–2 °C and SSP5-BAU scenarios. Mitigating interregional carbon inequality is a long-term and arduous task that requires commitments from governments, businesses and society. These findings clarify the optimal path for China to reduce carbon inequality in the future and provide a theoretical basis for government agencies to rationally adjust the current development model. Furthermore, they provide a supportive reference to help other economies achieve equitable and sustainable development.