Evaluation of Modeled Diurnal Warming Estimates for Application to Producing Sea Surface Temperature Analyses

IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Earth and Space Science Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI:10.1029/2024EA003619
Gary A. Wick, Sandra L. Castro, Andrew Harris, Jonathan Mittaz
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Abstract

Accurate knowledge of the amount of diurnal warming present in sea surface temperature (SST) observations at different times and effective depths is important for multiple applications including the production of blended SST analyses. This work explores the ability of a modified Kantha-Clayson-type one-dimensional mixed layer ocean model with wave effects to accurately simulate the observed diurnal warming amplitude over a global grid when forced with coarse resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) outputs. The sensitivity of the modeled diurnal amplitudes to multiple adjustable parameters and model configurations is evaluated to determine whether a preferred configuration can be identified that yields reliable predictions. The accuracy of the predictions is determined through comparison against estimates from operational SST retrievals from geostationary satellites. The results show that a single configuration can yield predictions that reproduce the observed range of diurnal warming amplitudes across a range of seasons and locations and an accurate occurrence frequency of the largest amplitude events. Simulated amplitudes fall along the one-to-one line with observations but with significant scatter due to factors including positioning of the NWP fluxes. The identified configuration is also shown to favorably reproduce diurnal warming observations from multiple research cruises. Overall uncertainty of the simulated diurnal warming amplitude across the different tests ranges between 0.4 K for all observations to ∼1 K for the largest warming events. While the focus is not on model comparisons, the results show improved performance relative to other models. Use of the model appears warranted but the associated uncertainty must be considered.

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评估应用于海面温度分析的模拟昼夜温差估算值
准确了解不同时间和有效深度的海面温度(SST)观测数据中的昼夜温差,对于包括混合 SST 分析在内的多种应用都非常重要。这项工作探索了改进的 Kantha-Clayson- 型一维混合层海洋模式的能力,该模式具有波浪效应,在粗分辨率数值天气预报(NWP)输出的强制作用下,能准确模拟全球网格上观测到的昼夜温差幅度。对模型昼夜振幅对多个可调参数和模型配置的敏感性进行了评估,以确定是否能确定一个首选配置,从而得出可靠的预测结果。预测的准确性是通过与从地球静止卫星获取的业务 SST 估计值进行比较来确定的。结果表明,单一配置的预测结果可以再现观测到的不同季节和地点的昼夜温差振幅范围,以及最大振幅事件的准确发生频率。模拟的振幅与观测值呈一一对应关系,但由于 NWP 流量的定位等因素的影响,振幅有很大的差异。已确定的配置还能很好地再现多个研究巡航所观测到的昼夜温差。在不同的测试中,模拟的昼夜温差振幅的总体不确定性从所有观测值的 0.4 K 到最大变暖事件的 1 K 不等。虽然重点不在于模式比较,但结果表明,与其他模式相比,该模式的性能有所提高。使用该模式似乎是有道理的,但必须考虑相关的不确定性。
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来源期刊
Earth and Space Science
Earth and Space Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
3.20%
发文量
285
审稿时长
19 weeks
期刊介绍: Marking AGU’s second new open access journal in the last 12 months, Earth and Space Science is the only journal that reflects the expansive range of science represented by AGU’s 62,000 members, including all of the Earth, planetary, and space sciences, and related fields in environmental science, geoengineering, space engineering, and biogeochemistry.
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