Possibilities and limitations of anticipatory action in complex crises: acting in advance of flooding in South Sudan

Abstract

Little evidence exists on the design and implementation of anticipatory action (AA) in complex crises. This article examines a 2022 United Nations ‘early action’ pilot in South Sudan in advance of extreme flooding. As a case study of efforts to act in a complex crisis, it contributes to learning on assisting conflict-affected and displaced populations in advance of extreme weather events. The research points towards the possibility and value of implementing forecast-informed early action in complex contexts with limited forecast skills and multiple hazards when trigger-based AA is not possible. It also argues for the need to link AA implemented in complex crises to development and peacebuilding actors and processes. More broadly, examining the perceptions and processes of AA in the form of early action, rather than a formal AA framework, is highly relevant for the AA community as attention is increasingly placed on providing AA in countries affected by fragility and conflict.