Insights into decision-maker's perceptions of good versus bad decisions in emergency services—A modified Delphi study

IF 2.6 3区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI:10.1111/1468-5973.12613
Greg Penney, David Launder, Tudor Codreanu, Matthew B. Thompson
{"title":"Insights into decision-maker's perceptions of good versus bad decisions in emergency services—A modified Delphi study","authors":"Greg Penney,&nbsp;David Launder,&nbsp;Tudor Codreanu,&nbsp;Matthew B. Thompson","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.12613","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Decision-making in emergency situations, such as those faced by fire, police, and health service personnel, presents unique challenges due to the high-stakes and time-pressured environment. Here we aim to better understand what emergency responders regard as constituting ‘good’ and ‘bad’ decisions in emergency situations. We administered a modified Delphi study, eliciting opinions from decision-makers across all these sectors towards consensus around the key elements of good and bad decision-making. Participants were first asked to define what makes a ‘good’ and a ‘bad’ decision, and subsequently to identify the top five most important elements of each. While consensus was not found, important insights were identified that can assist improve the standard of decision making at all levels of emergency response and management. We observed (i) a lack of a common understanding between participants of what a decision is, and how a decision differs from pre-decision and postdecision components; (ii) responses varied according to whether a free text description or the identification of separate elements was requested; (iii) respondents valued ‘goodness’ across different and at times unrelated components a scaled measure of decision quality as opposed to a binary evaluation of ‘rightness’; and (iv) pre- and postdecision elements are considered more important than the decision itself when determining the quality of a decision. To address the issues highlighted by the study we recommend improvements in training, and improvements to organization doctrine related to decision making, risk tolerance, assessment of decision quality and development of intent-based or principle-based operational guidance. Ultimately, incident controllers from all services must remain cognizant that they will face considerable scrutiny if they cannot explain how they arrived at the decision they made.</p>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1468-5973.12613","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-5973.12613","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MANAGEMENT","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Decision-making in emergency situations, such as those faced by fire, police, and health service personnel, presents unique challenges due to the high-stakes and time-pressured environment. Here we aim to better understand what emergency responders regard as constituting ‘good’ and ‘bad’ decisions in emergency situations. We administered a modified Delphi study, eliciting opinions from decision-makers across all these sectors towards consensus around the key elements of good and bad decision-making. Participants were first asked to define what makes a ‘good’ and a ‘bad’ decision, and subsequently to identify the top five most important elements of each. While consensus was not found, important insights were identified that can assist improve the standard of decision making at all levels of emergency response and management. We observed (i) a lack of a common understanding between participants of what a decision is, and how a decision differs from pre-decision and postdecision components; (ii) responses varied according to whether a free text description or the identification of separate elements was requested; (iii) respondents valued ‘goodness’ across different and at times unrelated components a scaled measure of decision quality as opposed to a binary evaluation of ‘rightness’; and (iv) pre- and postdecision elements are considered more important than the decision itself when determining the quality of a decision. To address the issues highlighted by the study we recommend improvements in training, and improvements to organization doctrine related to decision making, risk tolerance, assessment of decision quality and development of intent-based or principle-based operational guidance. Ultimately, incident controllers from all services must remain cognizant that they will face considerable scrutiny if they cannot explain how they arrived at the decision they made.

Abstract Image

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
洞察决策者对应急服务决策好坏的看法--改良德尔菲研究
紧急情况下的决策,如消防、警察和医疗服务人员所面临的决策,因其风险高、时间紧迫而具有独特的挑战性。在此,我们旨在更好地了解应急响应人员认为什么是紧急情况下的 "好 "决策和 "坏 "决策。我们开展了一项经过修改的德尔菲研究,向所有这些部门的决策者征求意见,以期就好决策和坏决策的关键要素达成共识。我们首先要求参与者定义什么是 "好 "决策,什么是 "坏 "决策,然后找出每种决策中最重要的五个要素。虽然没有达成共识,但我们发现了一些重要的见解,有助于提高各级应急响应和管理部门的决策标准。我们注意到:(i) 参与者对什么是决策以及决策与决策前和决策后的不同之处缺乏共识;(ii) 参与者的回答因要求自由文字描述还是确定单独要素而不同;(iii) 参与者重视不同要素的 "好坏",有时甚至是不相关的要素,这是对决策质量的一种比例衡量,而不是对 "正确性 "的二元评价;(iv) 在确定决策质量时,决策前和决策后要素被认为比决策本身更重要。为解决研究中强调的问题,我们建议改进培训,改进与决策、风险容忍度、决策质量评估和制定基于意图或原则的行动指南有关的组织理论。归根结底,所有部门的事故控制人员都必须认识到,如果他们无法解释自己是如何做出决定的,他们将面临相当严格的审查。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
12.90%
发文量
51
期刊介绍: The Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management is an invaluable source of information on all aspects of contingency planning, scenario analysis and crisis management in both corporate and public sectors. It focuses on the opportunities and threats facing organizations and presents analysis and case studies of crisis prevention, crisis planning, recovery and turnaround management. With contributions from world-wide sources including corporations, governmental agencies, think tanks and influential academics, this publication provides a vital platform for the exchange of strategic and operational experience, information and knowledge.
期刊最新文献
Reimagining crisis management with an organizational learning framework Correction to “Authenticity and high performance: Nonmarket social, public and media strategies of foreign SMEs during a black swan event” Enhancing cross-organizational collaboration in crisis management: Outcomes from a full-scale regional exercise in Norway Business continuity management deployment, community resilience, and organisational resilience in private industry response to 2011 Ayutthaya flooding The what and how of warning messages: An experimental examination of instructing information and linguistic features use
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1