Greg Penney, David Launder, Tudor Codreanu, Matthew B. Thompson
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Decision-making in emergency situations, such as those faced by fire, police, and health service personnel, presents unique challenges due to the high-stakes and time-pressured environment. Here we aim to better understand what emergency responders regard as constituting ‘good’ and ‘bad’ decisions in emergency situations. We administered a modified Delphi study, eliciting opinions from decision-makers across all these sectors towards consensus around the key elements of good and bad decision-making. Participants were first asked to define what makes a ‘good’ and a ‘bad’ decision, and subsequently to identify the top five most important elements of each. While consensus was not found, important insights were identified that can assist improve the standard of decision making at all levels of emergency response and management. We observed (i) a lack of a common understanding between participants of what a decision is, and how a decision differs from pre-decision and postdecision components; (ii) responses varied according to whether a free text description or the identification of separate elements was requested; (iii) respondents valued ‘goodness’ across different and at times unrelated components a scaled measure of decision quality as opposed to a binary evaluation of ‘rightness’; and (iv) pre- and postdecision elements are considered more important than the decision itself when determining the quality of a decision. To address the issues highlighted by the study we recommend improvements in training, and improvements to organization doctrine related to decision making, risk tolerance, assessment of decision quality and development of intent-based or principle-based operational guidance. Ultimately, incident controllers from all services must remain cognizant that they will face considerable scrutiny if they cannot explain how they arrived at the decision they made.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management is an invaluable source of information on all aspects of contingency planning, scenario analysis and crisis management in both corporate and public sectors. It focuses on the opportunities and threats facing organizations and presents analysis and case studies of crisis prevention, crisis planning, recovery and turnaround management. With contributions from world-wide sources including corporations, governmental agencies, think tanks and influential academics, this publication provides a vital platform for the exchange of strategic and operational experience, information and knowledge.