The Freiburg Index of Post-TIPS Survival accurately predicts mortality in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis

Abstract

Introduction

The recently developed Freiburg Index of Post-TIPS Survival (FIPS) allows improved risk classification of patients with decompensated cirrhosis allocated to transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) implantation. This study investigated the prognostic value of the FIPS in patients hospitalized with acute decompensation of cirrhosis (AD), outside the setting of TIPS implantation.

Methods

A total of 1133 patients with AD were included in a retrospective, multi-centre study. Ninety-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were recorded and the FIPS' performance in predicting mortality at these time points was analysed using ROC analyses.

Results

Ninety-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were 17.7%, 24.4% and 30.8%. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression models showed that the FIPS independently predicted 1-year mortality in the study cohort (HR 1.806, 95% CI 1.632–1.998, p < .0001). In ROC analyses, the FIPS offered consistently high performance in the prediction of mortality within 1 year after AD (area under the receiver operator characteristic [AUROC]: 1-year mortality .712 [.679–.746], 180-day mortality .740 [.705–.775] and 90-day mortality .761 [.721–.801]). In fact, in the subgroup of patients presenting with variceal bleeding, the FIPS even showed significantly improved discriminatory performance in the prediction of long-term mortality (AUROC 1-year mortality: .782 [.724–.839]) in comparison with established prognostic scores, such as the CLIF-C AD score (.724 [.660–.788], p = .0071) or MELD 3.0 (.726 [.662–.790], p = .0042).

Conclusions

The FIPS accurately predicts mortality in patients with AD and seems to offer superior prognostication of long-term mortality in patients with variceal bleeding.