Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India?

Abstract

While the existing literature has well documented the effects of climate change on migration, very little is known about the moderating impact of local non-farm income. In this context, the paper combines real time weather data provided by Indian Meteorological Department with a very rich household data on Indian states belonging to the eastern and semi-arid tropic regions collected by ICRISAT to investigate whether farmers always resort to migration or take it up as a second-best option only after they fail to diversify locally. Using recursive econometric model, it is observed that households first try to diversify their income by engaging in local non-farm activities and availability of local non-farm income further moderates the effect of climate change induced yield loss on migration. High levels of migration may result in welfare loss and affect urban sustainable development, and the decision to migrate is often challenging as it necessitates leaving behind social and community networks. Therefore, our findings offer valuable insights and discusses important policy recommendations towards improving the access to local non-farm activities.