Decision theory and probability theory: Pascal’s wager and pre-modern Indian lotteries

Abstract

Pascal’s wager is considered an important stepping stone for the emergence of probability that expresses subjective belief. Pascal is also sometimes credited with having invented decision theory. This paper analyzes the pre-modern Indian contributions to both decision theory and probability-as-subjective-belief theory. For that purpose, I have a close look at selected passages from the birth-story of Brahma, the Hitopadeśa, the Arthaśāstra, and the Mahābhārata. The main thesis is that the lottery offered by the king to the Buddha-to-be may be the world’s first use of a lottery in order to find out about the strength of a decision maker’s belief.