An analysis of the burden of liver cirrhosis: Differences between the global, China, the United States and India

Abstract

Background

Cirrhosis continues to be the most common cause of chronic liver disease-related deaths globally, which puts significant strain on global health. This report aims to investigate the patterns of cirrhosis in China, the United States, India and worldwide from 1990 to 2019 through an epidemiological analysis of the disease utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 database.

Methods

Download the GBD database's statistics on liver cirrhosis deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for the years 1990–2019 worldwide as well as for China, the United States and India. Utilize techniques like age–period–cohort interaction, decomposition analysis, study of health inequities, Joinpoint model and Bayesian Average Annual Percentage Change model to process the data.

Results

The main age group affected by cirrhosis disease, according to the results, is 50–69 years old. According to the Joinpoint model, there has been a negative worldwide Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) in the burden of cirrhosis between 1990 and 2019. Only the USA's AAPC is positive out of the three nations that were evaluated (albeit its 95% confidence interval spans 0). These are China, India and the United States. Forecasting models indicate that the prevalence of cirrhosis will keep rising in the absence of government action. According to decomposition analysis, the main factors contributing to the rising burden of cirrhosis are population ageing and size, whereas changes in the disease's epidemiology slow the disease's growth. Research on health disparities indicates that, between 1990 and 2019, there was a downward trend in health disparities between various locations.

Conclusion

Health organizations across different areas should take aggressive measures to address the worrisome prevalence of cirrhosis.