Development and Validation of a Clinical Nomogram for Predicting Complications From Pediatric Multiple Magnet Ingestion: A Large Retrospective Study.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION This study aimed to develop and validate a reliable nomogram based on clinical factors to predict complications associated with pediatric multiple magnet ingestion, addressing the urgency and controversy surrounding its management. METHODS Patients aged 0-18 years with multiple magnet ingestion diagnosed at the Shenzhen Children's Hospital between January 2017 and December 2023 were enrolled. Clinical data were analyzed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multifactor logistic regression analyses to screen for risk factors. A model was constructed, and a nomogram was plotted. Model performance was evaluated and internally validated using the area under the curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow test, calibration curve, decision curve analysis, and 1,000 bootstraps. We calculated the optimal cutoff value, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of the prediction model. RESULTS Of the 146 patients, 57 (39.0%) experienced complications. The nomogram included age, multiple ingestions, vomiting, abdominal pain, and abdominal tenderness. The AUC was 0.941, and the internally validated AUC was 0.930. The optimal cutoff value selected as a predictive value was 0.534, with a sensitivity of 82.5%, specificity of 93.3%, positive predictive value of 88.7%, negative predictive value of 89.3%, and accuracy of 89.0%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P value of 0.750. The calibration plot exhibited high consistency in prediction, and decision curve analysis showed excellent net benefits. DISCUSSION Our nomogram demonstrates excellent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility and may thus help clinicians accurately assess the risk of complications from pediatric multiple magnet ingestion.