Participatory backcasting towards desirable co-produced mobility futures: A case study of MaaS in Greater Manchester

IF 3 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2024.103463
Mahmud Tantoush , Solon Solomou , Ulysses Sengupta , Sigita Zigure
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Abstract

Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) has emerged as a model supported by popular discourse on achieving greener, more efficient and equitable future mobility. While technological change is a primary driver for models of development, the policy pathways, implementation and implications of MaaS are complex and unclear. In this paper, we explore the implications and limitations of a participatory approach to co-produced MaaS futures in Greater Manchester (GM). We adapt a backcasting methodology involving two stakeholder workshops to develop shared future visions and action pathways. Our methodology includes a participatory approach to pluralistic vision development and the use of a Three Horizons method for backcasting. This approach provides the opportunity to explore multiple desirable futures and the formulation of action pathways without negating plausible future possibilities. The research identifies multiple policy and collaborative action areas while also revealing limitations in MaaS user agency and unaddressed sustainability concerns related to wider Smart City criticisms. Findings also suggest a lack of adequate theory within current MaaS frameworks to engage with uncertainty, change and adaptive capacity. Future areas of research include the expansion of current frameworks to incorporate alternative framings from planning and complexity theories already attempting to address these dimensions of futures.

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参与式反向预测,实现理想的共同生产移动未来:大曼彻斯特地区 MaaS 案例研究
移动即服务(MaaS)已成为一种模式,得到了关于实现更环保、更高效和更公平的未来移动性的流行言论的支持。虽然技术变革是发展模式的主要驱动力,但移动即服务的政策路径、实施和影响却复杂而不明确。在本文中,我们探讨了在大曼彻斯特(GM)采用参与式方法共同创造 MaaS 未来的意义和局限性。我们采用了一种反向预测方法,包括两个利益相关者研讨会,以制定共同的未来愿景和行动路径。我们的方法包括参与式多元化愿景开发方法和使用 "三个地平线 "方法进行反向预测。这种方法为探索多种理想的未来和制定行动路径提供了机会,同时又不否定似是而非的未来可能性。研究确定了多个政策和合作行动领域,同时也揭示了 MaaS 用户代理的局限性,以及与更广泛的智能城市批评相关的未解决的可持续性问题。研究结果还表明,当前的 MaaS 框架缺乏足够的理论来应对不确定性、变化和适应能力。未来的研究领域包括扩展当前的框架,纳入规划和复杂性理论的替代框架,这些理论已经在尝试解决未来的这些问题。
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来源期刊
Futures
Futures Multiple-
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
10.00%
发文量
124
期刊介绍: Futures is an international, refereed, multidisciplinary journal concerned with medium and long-term futures of cultures and societies, science and technology, economics and politics, environment and the planet and individuals and humanity. Covering methods and practices of futures studies, the journal seeks to examine possible and alternative futures of all human endeavours. Futures seeks to promote divergent and pluralistic visions, ideas and opinions about the future. The editors do not necessarily agree with the views expressed in the pages of Futures
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