Simulating the Response of Tropical Cyclones to Potential Nuclear War

Abstract

Nuclear war would cause massive amounts of smoke from its associated explosions and fires that would subsequently inject copious amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere. There would also be considerable changes to the global climate system, threatening human health and sustainability. Our work reveals a reduction of global-scale tropical cyclones (TCs) from a simulation of a nuclear war scenario that could produce ∼150 million tons of smoke. In response to nuclear war, there would be spatially uneven cooling that would result in an anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) gradient pattern. Associated with this would be an anomalous zonal vertical circulation, tending to suppress upward motion and increase vertical wind shear over all TC main development regions, largely explaining the observed TC reduction at regional and global scales. This study improves our understanding of the impact of nuclear war on the TC environment.