Will the EU have enough minerals to drive their electric dreams by 2030?

Abstract

In order to achieve the climate goals, set on the basis of the Paris Agreement, i.e. to be climate neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU) governments consider electric vehicles (EVs) as an altering solution and have established their target based on that. However, the electrification of the transport modes depends heavily on minerals such as Aluminium, Cobalt, Copper, Graphite, Lithium, Manganese, Nickel, and Rare Earth Elements, whose availability and distribution are quite imbalanced internationally. The purpose of this work is thus to research whether the EU's 2030 targets for EVs can be satisfied with the amount of minerals that are currently globally available. A desk research was conducted to gather data and knowledge about EVs and EV-related minerals to shed light on their availability and supply. This allowed for calculating the demand for each material and enabled the determination of whether it could be satisfied in relation to the EV transformation targets for 2030. The results have shown that there will be a crisis in the graphite supply by the end of the decade and a considerable danger to the supply of nickel and cobalt due to the rapid transition to a green energy system in transportation.