Estimation of biogas potential from poultry manure to 2040 in Türkiye using time series and the artificial neural network (ANN)

Abstract

The number of poultry in Türkiye constituted approximately 24 % of Europe’s total in 2020. Although Türkiye has a significant number of poultry animals, it has been relatively unsuccessful in terms of managing the associated poultry waste. The present study focuses on poultry manure-based biogas potential (PMBP), which represents an alternative means of poultry manure management in Türkiye. PMBPs were calculated for each year from 2003 to 2021, for which it was found that for 2021, Türkiye's PMBP had increased by 40 % since 2003, reaching 3469 GWh. The possible electrical energy savings that PMBP could provide for lighting, habitation, business, government offices, and industry throughout Türkiye were calculated, with PMBP spatial distribution maps for 2021 created according to geographical region and province. The province with the highest PMBP was found to be Manisa, at 390 GWh. The projected PMBPs were calculated to 2040 using the artificial neural network (ANN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). According to ARIMA, the PMBP for 2040 could potentially be increased by as much as 32 % from that of 2021, while according to ANN predictions, this same increase could be as much as 72 %. The ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting from poultry manure management in Türkiye through biogas production was calculated. Investors may need to prepare a feasibility study for the establishment of a biogas plant in a suitable region within Manisa province, as it has the highest PMBP among the regions evaluated.