Phenological trends and associated climate drivers of a tree community in lowland dipterocarp forest, Western Ghats, India.

Abstract

Understanding phenological responses of tropical forest plant communities is crucial for identifying climate-induced changes in ecosystem dynamics. Monitoring phenology across diverse species in natural habitats provides cost-effective insights for conserving both species and forests. We studied tree phenology in a lowland evergreen dipterocarp forest in the Western Ghats, India. About 719 tree individuals representing 95 species were monitored for their vegetative and reproductive phenology from April 2021 to September 2023. Circular statistics detected seasonality in phenological events and Generalized Linear Mixed Modelling (GLMM) identified influence of climate variables on the phenological responses of the tree community. We also assessed how the activity and intensity of phenophases vary over the study period. Our results showed that leaf flushing and flowering peaked during the dry season, with mass flowering observed in two dominant dipterocarps. Fruit production peaked before the monsoon. We also observed diversity in vegetative and reproductive phenodynamics across species groups (forest strata, sexual system, and seed size). Leaf flushing was positively correlated with maximum relative humidity and negatively correlated with maximum temperature and the number of rainy days. Flowering had negative correlations with maximum relative humidity, rainfall days, and maximum temperature but showed a positive correlation with minimum temperature. Fruiting was positively correlated with maximum temperature and negatively correlated with rainy days. This detailed phenological information provides critical knowledge on resource availability and insights into how climate and seasonal changes affect plant growth cycles thereby aiding reforestation and biodiversity conservation strategies in vulnerable forest areas.